So why would anyone want to inflate the status of a storm to a hurricane and pre-declare disaster? A few reasons come to mind.
- Nobody wants to underforecast a storm should it become a monster.
- A more gloomy forecast allows for states to declare states of emergency sooner and begin evacuating sooner
- It supports quicker declaration of a disaster area. Take New York for example. No really-take them. Please. The disaster emergency was declared on 8-25. Before anyone had even suffered damages. Other states did likewise pre-declaring a disaster. When you think disaster relief, think “stimulus.” Government control = political control.
- Those states of emergency allow for “special” powers like in North Carolina where being armed in public is suddenly illegal during an SOE.
- Never let a crisis go to waste. Remember that a logical extension of this is, “Don’t solve a crisis while it’s small.” You’ll recall how hamstrung the oil skimmers were to those trying to cleanup the oil (i.e. make the crisis smaller).I don’t have any concrete answers here and can’t tell you what the surface windspeed is. But I can tell which way the weather vane is pointing.
What did Mr. Denninger say? “Appeal to emotion when you don’t have facts?”