Debt to GDP

I wonder if this will turn out well?

Triple digit debt to GDP. Say ot one more time so it sinks in.

Comments at the link above are priceless as usual:

“Deficit when Obama took office 10.6 trillion
He’s on path for a 50%+ Increase in one term!”

Good times.

So, how does this impact your preps and the new & improved polygonal battlespace?

Think about it, and once more…with feeling:

Triple digit debt to GDP.

FSA Love & The Brutal Delimma

Prepare to repel boarders!

This is classic 4GW and CW2 Cube stuff.

Look at those around you – and not just those who don’t look like you. Contemplate what your neighbor of 10 years (or more) is doing to prepare and how far under the proverbial sand his and his wife’s heads are. What do you do about them? Convert them to willing accomplices through free food and support or fight them off? Interesting decision to make there.

That staunch Republican in the cul-de-sac will likely loose his free market or else principles rapidly when his kids are hungry.

“What’s yours is mine – sorry…”


Systemic Instability

Go read this. CHS is a bit of an oracle. I read about half of his new book last night.

As Taleb has explained, the very act of suppressing fluctuations renders systems extremely prone to large-scale disruptions that are viewed as low-probability events, the infamous “black swans.” The key to understanding this rising likelihood of supposedly improbable disruptions is to understand the difference between linear and complex systems. Linear systems lend themselves to causal chains (A causes B which causes C) or probability (the odds of drawing two aces in a game of Blackjack) that can be calibrated with a high degree of accuracy.

Complex systems such as financial markets exhibit fractal or chaotic characteristics that lead to an unpredictability that is prone to disruption by seemingly small events. When volatility and risk (in political terms, dissent) are suppressed by central authorities, the variations that inform an open market (“variation is information”) are lost.

The misrepresentation (and thus the mispricing) of risk and the suppression of everything which doesn’t pander to the Status Quo is a defect not of individuals or specific institutions but of the entire system, including the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and the regulatory “alphabet soup” agencies (SEC, FDIC, etc.).

We all know and understand that as complexity increases, stability decreases. This seems to be a universal chaotic constant. Our economy and subsequent non-free markets will follow this trend.

There is no reason to believe that anything going forward will look like anything that has happened before. There will be a tipping point and we will make a radical turn.

We close our eyes

Interesting take. Thanks AP.

I would not have thought that’s where it would break out. Western Civ seems so preoccupied with the sandbox and rockpile that war in the rolling hills and majestic scenery on Europe seems a bit far fetched at the moment. It’s so much easier to do what we are doing in places where the resistance is less akin to total destruction and chaos rather than BMW’s, Audi’s, and kick ass cheese.

Like AP said, it happened there before – twice. Why not again?

Seems as though we are globally on track for something truly epic. Unless the Global Guerrillas vision of the future suddenly materializes, I fear the world has one more big one to try and walk through without annihilation.

Pleasant thoughts right?

Demand vs. Supply

See this article from Zerohedge.

The macro statement of the entire article here – it drives the point home:

Yet the take home message is clear: resource shortages are coming back with a vengeanceas physical limits on growth once again appear.

This statement is intriguing:

So, while up until now less than one billion people have accounted for three-quarters of global consumption, over the course of the next two decades, the new Chinese, Indian, Indonesian, Latin American and African middle classes will bring an additional two billion consumers with similar needs and aspirations as today’s North American, European and Japanese consumers.

I would question the validity of the rise of the emerging economies. China is clearly a bubble waiting to burst in just about every conceivable aspect. Similar states are now showing signs of economic weakness. I still subscribe to the 4GW and Global Guerrillas mindset more than any other. That is not to say that there is no weight to the quote above – I believe it is valid in part. I do not trust the human nature angle to this part. Historically governments, culture, and people from these parts of the world have not subscribed to the rapid growth, western based economic model. It simply has not been embraced. That is not to say that change of this magnitude cannot occur – only that given the historical track record it is not likely to move in that direction.

Where does that lead the western world, specifically America?

Our population is not growing and the aging gimme class will continue to demand the perks they sold out the later generations for. See this Zerohedge bit for a good laugh.

Keep in mind these generational pressures. How do they impact your preps and plans? How does this impact the CW2 Cube? How do you consolidate resources, contacts, and relationships withing your community and larger “tribe” to prosper during the transition?