The Not So New Newspeak

Orwell reference for those of you who didn’t read the book.

Article which motivated this post.

The timeless paradox of Schrodinger’s Cat, though after reading this, I’m beginning to question Quantum Theory as a whole. Lest we digress…

The bit I’m referring to:

Just spent a record high amount at the gas pump for this time of year? The BLS says you didn’t, and after all when it comes to reality, the BLS has a right of first refusal. The just printed headline CPI came at 0.4%, just in line with expectations of 0.4%, while core CPI of 0.2%, missed expectations of 0.3%. That’s right: not only is inflation meaningless, it is less than expected, leading to surge higher in stocks, bonds and the EURUSD. As for those items which are once again soaring in prices such as food and gas? Luckily, those can be hedonically adjusted by everyone to virtually zero. (wait? You still pay your mortgage or rent? Sucker!) Remember: the iPad is deflationary.

While some of this is like the political numbers game that the news outlets constantly play, there is, as always a shred of truth at the core. That truth is simple: Your currency is decreasing in value, sometimes exponentially, and therefor, commodities you use to, you know, live, are increasing in price.

It is true that economics can get complicated, this however, is not one of those times.

Dear readers, this impacts your way of life. This will impact the battle space going forward, and how your tribe fails or succeeds.

A government that will blatantly lie through one of its functionaries today when things are still pretty good, will magnify that to an order of magnitude when things get worse. Newspeak is the order of the day, and will be the vision of the future.

To clarify something I feel is critical regarding why I post so much econ related content:

  1. There is a wealth of fodder about it.
  2. It will impact you & yours going forward.
  3. It is the biggest picture view I can find.

I believe we are about to go through at least two decades of misery – globally. Life in America is going to radically change. The decadence we have known since we destroyed global industrial production during WWII will end. Life will be harsh, and an entire generation is likely to be decimated.

It is up to us to mitigate that damage by understanding the trajectory we are on and adapting solutions to counter that damage.

The ‘first right of refusal on reality’. Think about that dear readers. Times are still good. I would venture to guess that if you are reading this post in a western nation, you went to sleep in a bed last night with your hunger and thirst satiated. Again, think about what that propaganda would look like when unemployment is at 30% and inflation is spiraling out of control.

 

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Denninger Sends

From one of yesterday’s tickers:

Take a look at the FVX (5yr Treasury Yield) and you see a materially-more-frightening thing.  Yields have backed up from 0.7% to 0.97%.  Sounds trivial.  It’s not — it’s a huge move, close to 40% on yield since the end of January!

Yep.

This matters because the Federal Government’s deficit spending in February is what has been driving the “improving” economic numbers, just as it has been for the last three years.  This is a pincer move; while yields have to normalize if and when they start to move in this direction that move will also choke off federal deficit spending capacity.

The Depression featured this sort of attempt at “repression” by The Fed and government and it was unsuccessful.  It looked successful for a while, but eventually the math caught up with them and we slumped back into the morass.  Our “exit” was war; we blew up all of our industrial competitor’s output capacity and by doing so rejiggered demand.  That’s a rather bleak way of looking at what was “death by all forms” for the common man, but from an economic perspective that’s what happened.  But “war as a solution” since that time hasn’t “worked” (and in fact can’t) since small-ball wars run into the broken-window fallacy; you can’t “win” by breaking windows as the economic damage from a war exceeds the benefit.  For war to be a “winning” strategy you have to literally flatten your economic competitors so that even with the economic damage you wind up with a net benefit.

Wall cloud indeed.

Anecdotal Evidence

Anyone know why you can’t actually track a package sent via the US Postal Service and that you can through UPS, FedEx, etc?

Because the USPS is a government make-work program run by people who feel the state owes them employment, stellar benefits, and a six figure pension.

Your fellow neighbors in suburbia rant, rave, and bitch about waste such as this, though if you were to take that fixed cost stamp away from them, they would mourn their “right” to postal service.

You think about that and how it impacts your AO and subsequent battle space.

This flinch is a tell

John Venlet via The Green Dragon Tavern.

Comment by Pat Hines is what I really wanted to pull out of this:

I hate to skewer your illusions, TPaine, but the US government’s military will do, at least above the 65% level, exactly what their superiors tell them to do, exactly like they did after Katrina in New Orleans and nearby Parishes.

Betting on the US government’s military to act within Constitutions limitations is a fantasy.

Posted by Pat Hines  on  02/21  at  06:46 PM

 

Look up a little further on that page to find the phrase, ‘preparing the battlespace’.

All, we are in for one hell of a fight. Better get ready now, though I have to admit, the concept behind John’s piece did make me smile a bit.

As to regular posting, I’m not sure when I will have time. Our major deal was complete as of last week, and now I’m working through transition and integration. 20 hour days have turned into 22 hour days much to Mrs. Matson’s chagrin. I still owe Kerodin an E&E post with pics. Will do my best to get that complete by weeks’ end.

Agreed – Fair Warning from Denninger

I completely agree with Karl.

It is not often that one gets this sort of rotational warning in such a clear form, but you’re getting it now.  The same thing is true in the DOW, with IBM being the power mover there.

Beware folks.  Be very, very careful.

Though, my opinion is that we will see a run up to uncharted territory before the fall if crude doesn’t skyrocket over the summer. When you see the DJIA in the 19,000 to 22,000 range, it is literally time to head for the hills. The end result of that one will be five times what 2000 & 2008 were.

Social Fractals

Wow. Two ZH links in one morning. Good stuff.

Social fractals:

1. When the system enables fraud, collusion, misrepresentation of risk, moral hazard (the separation of risk and gain) and embezzlement, then it also rewards them. When breaking the rules in a systematic fashion garners huge rewards in wealth and power while playing by the rules dooms one to lower returns on the same investment of labor and capital, then the system itself is thoroughly, totally, completely, hopelessly corrupt.

Since America has enabled financial fraud, embezzlement etc. on a systemic basis, America itself is thoroughly, totally, completely, hopelessly corrupt. There is no other logical conclusion.

2. When the rule of law is routinely bypassed, flouted, negated or simply ignored without triggering uniformly applied consequences, then the system is thoroughly, totally, completely, hopelessly corrupt. Since America’s financial and political Elites have routinely bypassed, flouted, negated or simply ignored the laws governing mortgages, finance, insider trading, etc., actions that would lead to an average citzen’s arrest, indictment and routine conviction, then we must conclude that America itself is thoroughly, totally, completely, hopelessly corrupt. There is no other logical conclusion.

There are thus two distinct problems. The system, though nominally legal, is corrupt. The financial and political Elites (the Power Elites, or the Plutocracy) as a matter of course are not bound by the same laws that control the non-Elite citizenry.

Is it any wonder than the average citizen has surrendered their autonomy, independence and will to resist in such a pervasively corrupt society and economy? No wonder the average American is busy extending and pretending, remaining passive, quiet and complicit in the corruption. Why put my slice of the swag at risk when everyone else is getting away with perfectly legal looting, illegal but “enabled” predation and unparalleled financial parasitism enforced by the Central State?

But hey, there’s going to be quite a battle of gladiators in the Coliseum tomorrow, and free bread will be distributed before the entertainment extravaganza.

How does this apply to the upcoming battlespace?

Disaster Mythology: Your real enemies are not who you think they are…

As usual, the state and their agents of fortune are the one you need to guard against.

Read here, all of it including the embedded PDF.

Thanks to CA for posting. This is one of the better pieces of intel I have yet to see.

The sensationalistic and false Katrina stories are part of a broader phenomenon sociologists and other scholars refer to “Disaster Mythology.” In short, the Disaster Mythology is that following a disaster the streets become a post-apocalypse landscape of zombie-like marauders raping and pillaging.  Instead, the empirical research of disasters including studies of what actually happened in the after-math of Katrina itself shows just the opposite, that generally speaking there is an overall increase in pro-social behaviors and a decrease in anti-social ones.  However, it is the perception and expectation of these terrible outcomes which leads law enforcement, government and even ordinary citizens to act in ways that are counter-productive to the common good as well as damaging to everyone’s civil liberties during emergency situations.

For an excellent review of this scholarship, we can recommend a fascinating article recently published in The Cornell Law Review by law school Professor Lisa Grow Sun called Disaster Mythology and The Law.  Her research reveals not only what actually happens following disasters, but has led her to call for structural changes to disaster management, the most important of which are to focus on humanitarian responses (as opposed to military ones) and to remove FEMA from the DHS.

Local PD and Deputies, maybe not so much. Mercs, 82nd, and Nat Guard, probably ought to hold back, gather intel, and figure out a plan. Coordinated efforts with regard to that crew will go a long way to keeping the tribe intact, geared up, and still able to defend and operate. This is recent historical proof that in times of crisis, the idiot from southwest Fulton county is far less a threat to you & your tribe than the agents of dotgov.

Plan accordingly.