“Time is running out fast. I think we have maybe a few months — it could be weeks, it could be days — before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So they have to act now.”
“The only two guns in town, one is only theoretical, and that is increasing the size of the EFSF to 3 trillion. It should happen but it can’t for political reasons. The other one, the only remaining share is the ECB. They may have to hold their noses while they do it, and if they don’t do it, it’s the end of the euro zone.”
This is a very big deal. One year ago, the Italian 2-year was at 2.010 and the 10-year was at 3.924 The Italian 2-year is now rapidly approaching where the Portuguese 10-year was one year ago. What this indicates is that the end of the Euro and the end of the EU in its present form will likely take place within one year. Greece and Ireland were sideshows. Italy is the main event.
I would agree with the above statement. This is why my travel plans within CONUS (& especially outside CONUS) have been put on indefinite hold.