Global Moves: Iran and the CW2 Battlespace

This is spot on:

A war with Iran has three drivers:

  • It is building a nuclear weapon.  The Israeli security lobby is going nuts.
  • Iran is sitting on top of the world’s 2nd largest reserves of natural gas (behind Russia).  Given how important natural gas is to future global energy needs and the need to hedge Russia’s control over the global market, this can’t be allowed.
  • The US defense industry needs a new way to drive spending now that bin Laden is dead.  Iran is now at the top of the list (China/Cyberwarfare is next on the list).

With these drivers in place, all that is needed to is to remove barriers to a conflict.

Keep in mind kids, this kind of thing will drive up energy costs way beyond where they are today, and likely cause local retaliation from that special faction of the religion of peace. Not trying to toe the party line here, I’m just saying, if we go step on toes, not only is large scale, global systems disruption on the table, so are localized attacks on soft targets here in CONUS.

This will impact you. That impact will likely be unpleasant. Plan accordingly.

A radical & rapid shift in loyalty?

From John Robb:

IF we keep going in this direction, and there’s no reason to think we won’t, these young men find new groups to care for them and they shift their loyalties to new gangs/mafias/cartels/militias etc. at a pretty amazing clip.  Given the danger this shift in primary loyalties represents for the future, going it alone isn’t an option.  You need a community at your back.

Tough to read. I would think that would be especially tough if you had hung it out there in any of our current war zones and were looking for something interesting to do when you rotated home.

This is not to disparage any of our service men. It is a simple (though hardhearted) calculation on where loyalties will lie when we are running way past 25% unemployment.

You will indeed need community at your back. How do you (right now) make that community successful and attractive to those out there with these skills? Might want to figure that out.


America is Broken

From John Robb.

The US is broken.  In the years after WW2 the US made tangible the American dream.  It did so through by connecting incomes to improvements in productivity.  Simply:  If you do more work per hour, your income should go up (see chart).

The result was a decentralization of economic decision making on a scale never seen before in the history of the world.

It was AMAZING.  Tens of millions of financially prosperous households making decisions on what they should buy and invest in.   Most of what America still is today was built during that period.

The violent colonial era comes to a close through WWI & WWII. International industrial production was defunct with America as the last one left standing. The era of the economic empire moved forward. Apparently, it was a relatively short one.

More On Resiliance

Comments on this post are pretty good. I like the idea of AUS or France, but family ties would not allow the Matson house to do something that drastic.

And while this is true:

A six month stockpile of canned/freeze dried goods and two dozen boxes of ammo won’t get you through it.  You need a real game plan.

Being prepared enough to thrive during and post the initial system shock will go a long way. Not being hungry or completely defenseless will help you think clearly. I propose that you have 12 months + worth of supplies. It is cheap, an excellent investment against all kinds of systemic vulnerabilities, and will give you the ability to render direct aid to those around you, further building your tribe in times of crisis.

The ability to defend the above seems only logical.