From ZH. Been expecting something akin to this for a while now:
8 – Based on the reasons set out earlier and also covered in my two prior notes, over the August to November period I am looking for the S&P500 to trade off down from around 1400 to 1100/1000 – in other words, I expect over the next four months to see global equity markets fall by 20% to 25% from current levels and to trade at or below the lows of 2011! US equity markets, along with parts of the EM spectrum, will I think underperform eurozone equity markets, where already very little hope resides. For iTraxx crossover, this equates to a spread wide for 2012 of – in my view – 800/1000bp. NOTE however that investment grade cash corporate (non-financial) bonds remain a core (relative!) safe-haven. This four-month coming major risk-off phase will, in my view, also be very USD bullish (my expectation of Fed USD1trn QE in December should eventually alter the bullish USD trend of course) and bullish core government bonds (USTs, Gilts, Bunds) – perhaps we could see 10yr Bunds at 50bp all-in yields, with USTs and Gilts at/close to 1%. By late 2012, based on my Fed December QE view, my tactical call will likely turn bullish/risk-on – let us see about that closer to the time. And of course I still see a very clear path to 800 on the S&P500 at some point in 2013/2014, driven by market revulsion against pump-priming money printing central bankers, but this discussion is also for nearer the time.
You have been warned!
The system is backed up and needs an adjustment. Has for a long time now.
There were so many disturbing elements to the May jobs data that we’re not sure we can do justice to the litany of disappointments (with some help from our friends at the Investor’s Business Daily):
The share of long-term unemployment is at its highest level since the Great Depression (42%).
Fully 54% of college degree graduates under the age of 25 are either unemployed or underemployed.
45 million Americans are on food stamps — one in seven residents.
47% of Americans are on some form of government assistance.
The employment-to-population ratio for 25-54 year olds is now 75.7%, lower than it was when the recession supposedly ended in June 2009.
The number of people not in the labour force has swelled eight million since the recession ended; absent that effect, the unemployment rate would be 12% right now (about the same as President Obama’s election chances would be).
The number of people confident enough to leave their jobs fell 11% in May for the second month in a row to 891k, the lowest since November 2010.
The ranks of the unemployed who have been looking fruitlessly for work for at least 27 weeks jumped 310k in May, the sharpest increase since May 2011.
The unemployment rate for males aged 16-19 is 27% and for males between 20 and 24 it is 13%. Draw your own conclusions from a social (in)stability standpoint.
One in seven Americans are either unemployed or underemployed.
Only one in six of the youth are working full-time and three-in-five are living with their folks or another relative (as per the NYT).
A mere 16% of the 2009-2011 graduating class has found full-time work, while 22% are working part-time. Even those hired from 2006-08, just 23% are working full-time.
According to a poll cited in the NYT, just 14% of high-school grads today believe they will have a more successful financial future than their parents Line of the day, as depressing as it is, comes from an 18-year old: “Thank God I had a buddy at Burger King who could help me out”. Fast-food has emerged as the fast-growing industry in a country once led by technology. Even tech now is fuelled more by companies that produce nifty consumer gadgets and feed our narcissistic needs than those who focus on improving the nation’s capital stock which is the ultimate trailblazer for productivity growth and durable gains in our standard-of-living.
Something to think about on a Wednesday afternoon dear readers.
“Time is running out fast. I think we have maybe a few months — it could be weeks, it could be days — before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So they have to act now.”
“The only two guns in town, one is only theoretical, and that is increasing the size of the EFSF to 3 trillion. It should happen but it can’t for political reasons. The other one, the only remaining share is the ECB. They may have to hold their noses while they do it, and if they don’t do it, it’s the end of the euro zone.”